The last 24 hours has been a bit of blood bath. Ever since Eth’s 7th Nov ATH of 4.8k, Crypto has basically been in a bear market - price has fallen 32% to 3.25k.

BTC price has followed a similar trajectory, from an ATH of 67k on Nov 7th 2021, to 42k - a 38% drop.

We’re therefore technically in a two month bear market.

This means a couple of things. Given the short boom bust cycle of crypto, this might just mean that there might be a bullish reversal. However, investors in the west are generally risk-off at the moment because of tightening monetary policy. Volumes are looking too thin for there to be a sustained one.

Verdict: unable to tell.

However, let’s take a quick look at the price action since I last wrote the , where I called a short on Eth.

Since then, the largest one day actions happened on the 28th Dec, where the price of ETH fell 6%; 5th Jan, where it fell 6.5%, and over the last two days, where it fell 3.6% and 5% respectively.

Cumulatively, price fell 20% over the last two weeks.

The obvious question is: where would Eth go from here? Is it time to buy a dip? Is there a short term crypto swing trade to be made before the US markets contract for real?

Let’s take a look at what the charts are telling us.

Volume

First question: How did the crowd react over the last two days? Are people buying this dip?

Generally, yes. There is some buying of the dip. However, it’s not as much what people bought during the first dip circled in cyan.

As a rule of thumb, the best dips to buy are the ones where it dipped further after most people thought that it’s the dip to buy (circled in red).

When buy-the-dippers fall silent, that’s when you should buy the dip.

Right now, based on volume alone, the dippers are still very active. There’s a good chance they’ll miss the best dip in thinking that that was a good dip.

The reason why some people bought the dip is probably because they thought that, like the last bear market which lasted around 2 months before hitting another ATH, this one will be similar. But conditions have changed quite a bit. Previously, there were lots of Covid money flying around. Now, it’s all tightening up, and fiscal budgets are running dry. Capital seems to be risk off.

It’s hard to tell, but I think the fall will not stop as of yet.