Main guiding thought: should I long or short ETH?

1. How is it looking on Trading view?
-upward momentum- Suggests upward trend, at least in the short term.

2. Volume.
Historically, the best time to buy is when volumes are trending way above price. Right now, the volumes are looking pretty thin. 3. Social Volume
Historically, social volume is a topping indicator. Right now, we’re at the height almost of social volume. Which means, it’s not a good idea to buy.

4. Social Sentiment
Historically, I should be buying in periods of low positive sentiment - going by the maxim of, the true dip to buy is when most of the crowd has forgotten about the dip. Right now, positive sentiment is at an ATH.

4. Network Profit Loss?
We see that most people are not taking profit. The NPL is thinning, although there’s no blood on the streets yet.

5. Exchange Inflow/Outflow?
It is said that spikes in exchange inflow tend to signify local tops. However, the exchange inflow is inconclusively ambiguous.

6. MVRV
MVRV tracks the average profit or loss of a certain group of ETH holders. A 30-day MVRV shows average profit/loss of all addresses that have acquired ETH in the previous 30-days.

The higher the MVRV, the more incentive there is for holders to exit their positions and take profit. An MRV of +25% or +33% typically is a danger zone. Here, we see that the 30-day MVRV is looking relatively safe actually. However:

Based on the 60 day MVRV, the best times to buy is when it MVRV hits -30% (circled) - blood on the streets level. Hence, it’s not time to act yet. There might be a short term swing.

7. Daily Active Addresses
Generally, sustained price rallies are accompanied by strong daily active addresses, pointing to rising interest and demand for the coin and providing fundamental support for further price growth. Conversely, a growing divergence between the coin’s price and its on-chain activity (plateauing or in decline) has been known to earmark local tops and signal increased risk of a short-term price dump.

What we see here is that although there’s an increase in daily active addresses, price has increased faster than address activity, and is on a recent decline.

8. Whale Activity
Overall, whales are exiting their positions.

Why would they not? They fear the uncertainty that is in store.

Conclusion

Based on Trading view, there might be a swing trade to be made here. Meaning - I shall stay in a long trade for about a week or so.

Volumes are not looking too healthy, indicating a potential downward price action soon. (Short)

Social volume seem to have peaked. However, it’s still on the rise, and there’s a possibility that another short term swing trade is possible (Short)

Positive Social sentiment is at ATH. I should most definitely short. (Short)

Network Profit loss is really thin. This means many are not taking profits, and an impending loss cycle might be soon approaching. (Short)

60 Day MVRV tells us that although it’s somewhat time to buy in, the best opportunities occur when its at -25% to -30%. (Short term long, long term Short)

Daily active address paints a bearish picture. (Short)

Whales are exiting their positions. (Short)

Overall - there is good reason to believe that ETH will enter a bear cycle.

A better thing to do would be to set a couple of limit orders on the downwards - at 3400, 3200, 3000, 2800, 2400, 2000 benchmark. In past crashes, we’ve seen values drop by 80% in crypto. So 0.2*4000 = 800. If I am ambitious, I should really be aiming to buy somewhere around 1500 - 2000. Have some cash at hand for that.

In any case, it’s not a good time to be buying into Eth.

If I have the balls, I should go and short it. But I don’t have enough conviction.

But let’s say, that my prediction is that Eth price movement might move upwards to 4300 in a week or two, before dropping back down and going into bear territory. Let’s see how that pans out in a week.